Monday, September 14, 2009

Are We Due For a Market Correction?

"The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities — that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future — will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands." - Warren Buffett (hat tip to marketfolly)
Articles of interest:

1.  Insiders sell like there's no tomorrow, CNNMoney.com, 09/11/2009
"..there were $31 worth of insider stock sales in August for every $1 of insider buys"

2.  Rogers Holds Back From Commodity Buys Now, Bloomberg, 09/11/2009
"Investor Jim Rogers said he’s holding back from further purchases of commodities after prices soared.. Investors should wait for commodity prices to drop to buy for the long term"

3.  Death Plays, Barrons, 09/14/2009
"It's almost as if the biggest credit bubble in history never occurred. Investors are increasingly convinced that a sustainable global recovery is emerging out of the wreckage. All praise to the central bankers for saving the world! I'm waiting till someone writes about the return of the Great Moderation and suggests Ben Bernanke is the new Maestro. Then I'll know the lunatics have taken over the madhouse...yet again."

4.  China Strikes Back on Trade , Wall Street Journal, 09/14/09
China indicated Sunday it would restrict U.S. imports of chicken and auto products after Washington's move to slap punitive sanctions on Chinese tire imports, raising tensions in a trade dispute ahead of two planned meetings between the countries' leaders.

While no one can predict the future direction of the markets, string of recent news suggests it might be a good time to pocket some profits.

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